Profit and loss forecasts across conservative, realistic, and optimistic scenarios.
Key Parameters
| Parameter | Value |
|---|
| Annual Revenue Growth Rate | 15% |
| Fixed Cost Annual Increase | 5% |
| Variable Costs | 45% of Revenue |
Revenue Projections (₹ Cr)
| Scenario | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|
| Conservative | 8.33 | 9.58 | 11.02 | 12.67 | 14.58 |
| Realistic | 10.83 | 12.46 | 14.33 | 16.48 | 18.95 |
| Optimistic | 15.91 | 18.30 | 21.04 | 24.20 | 27.83 |
Fixed Costs (₹ Cr)
| Item | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|
| Fixed Costs | 6.54 | 6.87 | 7.21 | 7.57 | 7.95 |
Fixed costs increase at 5% annually
Variable Costs (₹ Cr)
45% of Revenue
| Scenario | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|
| Conservative | 3.75 | 4.31 | 4.96 | 5.70 | 6.56 |
| Realistic | 4.88 | 5.61 | 6.45 | 7.41 | 8.53 |
| Optimistic | 7.16 | 8.23 | 9.47 | 10.89 | 12.52 |
EBITDA (₹ Cr)
Revenue - Fixed Costs - Variable Costs
| Scenario | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|
| Conservative | -1.95 | -1.59 | -1.15 | -0.60 | 0.07 |
| Realistic | -0.58 | -0.01 | 0.67 | 1.49 | 2.47 |
| Optimistic | 2.21 | 3.20 | 4.37 | 5.74 | 7.36 |
EBITDA Margin (%)
| Scenario | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|
| Conservative | -23.5% | -16.6% | -10.4% | -4.7% | 0.5% |
| Realistic | -5.3% | -0.1% | 4.7% | 9.1% | 13.1% |
| Optimistic | 13.9% | 17.5% | 20.7% | 23.7% | 26.4% |
Realistic Scenario - Detailed P&L
| Line Item | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|
| Revenue | 10.83 | 12.46 | 14.33 | 16.48 | 18.95 |
| Variable Costs (45%) | (4.88) | (5.61) | (6.45) | (7.41) | (8.53) |
| Gross Profit | 5.95 | 6.85 | 7.88 | 9.07 | 10.42 |
| Fixed Costs | (6.54) | (6.87) | (7.21) | (7.57) | (7.95) |
| EBITDA | (0.58) | (0.01) | 0.67 | 1.49 | 2.47 |
| Depreciation | (2.31) | (2.31) | (2.31) | (2.31) | (2.31) |
| EBIT | (2.89) | (2.32) | (1.64) | (0.82) | 0.16 |
| Scenario | Total Revenue | Total EBITDA | Avg Margin |
|---|
| Conservative | ₹56.18 Cr | -₹5.22 Cr | -9.3% |
| Realistic | ₹73.05 Cr | ₹4.04 Cr | 5.5% |
| Optimistic | ₹107.28 Cr | ₹22.88 Cr | 21.3% |
Key Insights
- Conservative Scenario: Breaks even only in Year 5
- Realistic Scenario: EBITDA positive from Year 3, strong margins by Year 5
- Optimistic Scenario: Profitable from Year 1 with healthy 26% margins by Year 5