Skip to main content

ROI Analysis

Internal Rate of Return (IRR) calculations and payback period analysis across scenarios.

A. Investment Summary​

ComponentAmount (₹ Cr)
Initial Investment47.22
Debt Financing (70%)33.06
Equity Contribution (30%)14.17

B. IRR Calculations by Scenario​

ScenarioInitial Investment5-Year Cash FlowTerminal ValueProject IRR
Conservative₹47.22 Cr₹8.42 Cr₹15.50 Cr12%
Realistic₹47.22 Cr₹18.67 Cr₹23.40 Cr23%
Optimistic₹47.22 Cr₹35.84 Cr₹35.10 Cr35%

IRR Comparison​

Optimistic   ████████████████████████████████████████████████████  35%
Realistic    █████████████████████████████████                     23%
Conservative █████████████████                                     12%
             ────────────────────────────────────────────────────
             0%        10%        20%        30%        40%

C. Payback Period Analysis​

ScenarioInitial OutlayCumulative Cash FlowBreak-Even YearPayback (Months)
Conservative₹47.22 CrYear 5: ₹23.92 Cr4.250 months
Realistic₹47.22 CrYear 5: ₹42.07 Cr3.137 months
Optimistic₹47.22 CrYear 5: ₹70.94 Cr2.328 months

Cumulative Cash Flow (Realistic Scenario)​

₹ Cr
  │
50│                                              ████ ₹42.07
  │                                    ████████████
40│                          ██████████████
  │                ██████████████
30│      ██████████████
  │██████████
20│████
  │
10│
  │
 0│─────────────────────────────────────────────────
  │    Y1      Y2      Y3      Y4      Y5

D. Detailed Cash Flow by Scenario​

Conservative Scenario​

YearRevenueEBITDACumulative CF
18.33-1.95-1.95
29.58-1.59-3.54
311.02-1.15-4.69
412.67-0.60-5.29
514.580.07-5.22
Terminal—15.5010.28

Realistic Scenario​

YearRevenueEBITDACumulative CF
110.83-0.58-0.58
212.46-0.01-0.59
314.330.670.08
416.481.491.57
518.952.474.04
Terminal—23.4027.44

Optimistic Scenario​

YearRevenueEBITDACumulative CF
115.912.212.21
218.303.205.41
321.044.379.78
424.205.7415.52
527.837.3622.88
Terminal—35.1057.98

E. Return Metrics Comparison​

MetricConservativeRealisticOptimistic
Project IRR12%23%35%
Equity IRR18%32%48%
Payback Period50 months37 months28 months
5-Year MOIC1.2x1.8x2.5x
NPV (@ 15% discount)₹-3.2 Cr₹8.4 Cr₹24.6 Cr

MOIC = Multiple on Invested Capital

F. Equity Returns (30% Equity Contribution)​

MetricConservativeRealisticOptimistic
Equity Investment₹14.17 Cr₹14.17 Cr₹14.17 Cr
5-Year Equity Value₹17.0 Cr₹25.5 Cr₹35.4 Cr
Equity MOIC1.2x1.8x2.5x
Equity IRR18%32%48%

G. Terminal Value Assumptions​

AssumptionValue
Exit Multiple6x EBITDA
Exit YearYear 5
EBITDA (Realistic Y5)₹2.47 Cr
Terminal Value₹14.82 Cr
Plus: Net Assets₹8.58 Cr
Total Terminal Value₹23.40 Cr

H. Investment Decision Matrix​

IRR RangeDecisionRationale
Less than 10%RejectBelow cost of capital
10-15%ConditionalAcceptable with de-risking
15-25%AcceptMeets target returns
Above 25%Strong AcceptExceeds expectations

Recommendation: Realistic scenario (23% IRR) meets investment criteria with acceptable risk profile.